Famous last words, but this time could be different. Big things are happening with Egypt’s economic policy management, and investors are taking notice. Though as with any other emerging market, the question that shouldn’t be asked is so often the same: is this time different? One of the most obvious symptoms of change is the […]

Today’s charts are snapshots of credit-to-GDP gaps in emerging and advanced economies. As a reminder, the credit gap measures the difference between actual credit to the private sector and trend credit to the private sector. These estimates through Q3 2023 are provided by the Bank for International Settlements, which describes its credit-to-GDP ratio as capturing […]

Higher for (a bit) longer, but don’t buy into inflationista hype. I wrote recently that emerging market sovereigns considering new issuance should be ready for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024, despite the hot Q1 inflation prints. The point is that core goods inflation has all but disappeared from the consumer price index and that […]

Debt management offices in emerging market finance ministries should be prepared for Fed rate cuts. Emerging market sovereign debt issuance started 2024 off strongly with record-breaking issuance in January at ~$47bn and another ~$16bn in February, marking the highest January-February result since before the pandemic. Sub-Saharan African sovereigns even returned to the Eurobond market, with […]

Oil prices have actually declined in the wake of Iran-Israel. In remarks made on Tuesday this week, JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon stated, among other things, that he’s surprised at oil not rising further amid recent geopolitical tensions. Brent crude has mostly been trading in the $85-90 range over the past month, though that is […]

One of the major announcements at last week’s World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings concerns the unsustainable rise in US government debt. While it’s old news that the budget deficit is large – $1.7tn / 6.3% of GDP in 2023 and a projected $1.6tn in 2024, I want to highlight how US debt relates to the the […]

The headline article in yesterday’s FT focused on the “soaring” Vix index, a well-known measure of investor skittishness. Much ado about VIX VIX rises when market participants expect more volatility in the S&P 500, as it reflects the cost of buying options used to profit from changes in stock prices. It’s clear that markets are […]

India’s economy is in great shape as it heads to the polls… but something’s off. With India’s general elections getting under way on Friday, much of the focus this week will be on the world’s most populous country and largest democracy. So here are some charts to help you look beyond the headlines and arm […]

As global markets grapple with the prospect of higher rates for longer, it’s important to keep an eye on another important potential headwind: the direction of worldwide central bank asset purchases. Without delving too deeply into the history of unconventional monetary policy, post-Global Financial Crisis the world’s major central banks implemented quantitative easing programs. This […]

With so much of the world headed to the polls in 2024, a quick stock-take of results so far and a look ahead are in order. The outcome of each contest shapes broader international trends of deglobalization. Of populists & liberals The paradox is that both populist and liberal political parties have pursued policies leading […]

Today’s spotlight is on Senegal’s presidential election in March 2024 and the spectacular rise to power of political novice Bassirou “Diomaye” Faye, a 44-year old former tax inspector who went from prison to the presidency in scarcely 10 days. Digging beneath the surface of the electoral results reveals some oft-neglected ethnic undercurrents at play in […]

Berkeley-based economist and titan of the profession Barry Eichengreen notes that the dollar’s reserve currency status is continuing to erode in favor of “non-traditional reserve currencies”. But looking closely at the same recently-released IMF data through Q4 2023 paints a more nuanced picture. At end-2016, the IMF reclassified yuan holdings from “other” to its own […]