2024: string of electoral victories for right-wing populists across emerging markets
Right-wing populism
In order to help you EM aficionados cut through the political news cycle noise, it’s necessary take a step back and think about the direction of travel of EM politics. Let’s not bury the lede: by my count, the political winds in 2024 are favoring populist right-wing parties above all else.
That’s not to say other political formations haven’t done well this year. Center-left parties are a case in point. As are authoritarians of different stripes.
But it is noteworthy that right-wing populists have enjoyed electoral victories across most EM regions year-to-date:
- Europe: Slovakia, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Poland
- Asia: Indonesia, India
- Latin America: Panama
Some caveats
The main center-left victories have come in Taiwan, Turkey, South Korea, and Mongolia. Mexico and South Africa also witnessed victories of left-wing populists with wide-ranging implications.
Now, victory does not equal improvement. For instance, India’s BJP and South Africa’s ANC “won” their general elections but secured far fewer seats than anticipated. In the latter case, the winner even had to enter into a coalition with rival party to form a government.
Authoritarians
For the authoritarian “victories” listed below, these have all come in various forms. The Awami League’s re-election in January has proven short-lived, with protests ousting the government in summer 2024.
The electoral situations in Venezuela, Chad, and Pakistan have their own idiosyncrasies but share at least one attribute: the results are anything but free and fair.
And the Kuwaiti emir’s penchant for dissolving and re-dissolving parliament is down right bizarre. Maybe he is competing with Bulgaria to host as many elections in short order as possible?
Where is the center-right?
Another feature of this year’s electoral results in EM is the seeming absence of any center-right victories.
There could possibly have been a few. But I haven’t gone through every single contest, having filtered for broadest possible relevance to the EM investor base (e.g. sorry Iraqi local elections, Madagascar parliamentary elections, Vanuatu constitutional referendum etc).
This could be a naming issue: are all so-called right-wing “populist” parties actually more “populist” than so-called center-left parties not branded as such?
Overview
Right-wing victories
- Center-right: NA
- Populist: Slovakia, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Panama
- Victory but weakened: India, Poland
- Authoritarian: Pakistan, Kuwait, Chad
Left-wing victories:
- Center-left: Taiwan, Turkey, South Korea, Mongolia
- Populist: Mexico, Senegal
- Victory but weakened: South Africa
- Authoritarian: Bangladesh, Venezuela
April
Kuwait: Kuwaiti politics have been downright chaotic of late, with the emir having dissolved parliament in February following an alleged insult. This fourth election in four years resulted in the opposition retaining its majority, at least until the emir dissolved parliament – again – in May.
Slovakia: The populist, pro-Russian PM Robert Fico’s preferred presidential candidate, Peter Pellegrini, won the run-off for the largely-honorary role. Fico survived an assassination attempt in May, marking deep divisions within the country.
Poland: The nationalist, opposition PiS party came out ahead in local elections on April 7th, remaining the strongest party. But Prime Minister Tusk’s Civic Coalition experienced some gains, notably with more majorities in regional assemblies.
South Korea: The center-left DPK retained its hold on the most seats in the National Assembly and with its partner parties in the Democratic Alliance controls an absolute majority of seats. Its historic rival, the conservative PPP, holds the presidency.
Other: Croatia, Solomon Islands, Ecuador, Maldives.
May
South Africa: The ruling ANC party lost its outright parliamentary majority for the first time in the post-apartheid era. President Ramaphosa chose to enter a new coalition government with the center-right Democratic Alliance, a long-time rival party.
Panama: The center-right Realizing Goals-Alliance won the vote, bringing José Raúl Mulino to the presidency. Mulino has expressed skepticism around allegations detailed in the Panama Papers surrounding a variety of corrupt business practices allegedly facilitated by a local law firm.
North Macedonia: In a blow to the country’s EU integration prospects, the nationalist, right-wing party VMRO-DPMNE decisively won the parliamentary elections while its candidate, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, won the presidential elections on the same day.
Chad: Following the death of long-serving then-President Idriss Déby in 2021, his son Mahamat Déby served as transitional president until the 2024 election. Déby then won the vote handily, in results that have been heavily disputed and overshadowed by the killing of one of the candidates prior to the election.
Other: Lithuania, Dominican Republic, Madagascar, Vanuatu
June & July
India: Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist BJP unsurprisingly won the general election, albeit by much less than previously anticipated. So much so that this came as a shock, with expectations that the BJP would win 400 seats instead of the 240 that it managed to secure.
Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum of the center-left Morena party, founded by outgoing President AMLO, is the first woman to be elected president in Mexico.
Venezuela: Incumbent President Nicolas Maduro was re-elected in an election whose results are heavily disputed.
Bulgaria: The center-right GERB party secured the most votes in this snap election, the country’s sixth in three years. But with only around a quarter of the seats, this result failed to end the country’s political instability, with parties failing to form a government, and leading to new parliamentary election in October 2024.
Mongolia: The incumbent social democratic MPP secured a reduced, narrow majority in parliament.
Other: Iceland, Serbia, Ireland, Belgium, Iraq, Mauritania, Rwanda
Looking Ahead
September: Sri Lanka, Algeria, Romania, Switzerland
October: Mozambique, Lithuania, Georgia, Uruguay, Chad
November: United States, Palau, Somaliland, Switzerland, Mauritius, Guinea-Bissau, Namibia, Romania
December: Ghana, Romania, Croatia, South Sudan