Where is emerging market growth fastest?
- Paul Della Guardia
- 2024-09-12
EM convergence to rich-world wealth levels is concentrated in Europe and Asia. When I read a recent piece by Ruchir Sharma about a growth revival under way in emerging markets, I had to start investigating. Apparently, a higher-than usual proportion of EMs (88%!) will have GDP per capita growth higher than the US in 2025-29, […]
Right-wing populism on the rise in EM
- Paul Della Guardia
- 2024-08-18
2024: string of electoral victories for right-wing populists across emerging markets Right-wing populism In order to help you EM aficionados cut through the political news cycle noise, it’s necessary take a step back and think about the direction of travel of EM politics. Let’s not bury the lede: by my count, the political winds in […]
Reserve flunkies
- Paul Della Guardia
- 2024-08-02
It’s not just the usual suspects: some oil exporters also have low official reserves levels. When writing last week’s piece on the IMF’s shoddy deal with Pakistan, I was blown away at the country’s astonishingly-low level of international reserves. $9.5 billion for a $350 billion economy. That’s only around 3% of GDP and 1-2 months […]
The IMF’s “extend and pretend” deal with Pakistan
- Paul Della Guardia
- 2024-07-26
Pakistan and the IMF recently agreed on a program worth $7 billion, which appears woefully insufficient to resolve the country’s macroeconomic imbalances. The Fund claims that the Extended Fund Facility over the next 37 months intends to “cement macroeconomic stability and create conditions for a stronger, more inclusive, and resilient growth.” But this nothingburger of […]
Is another crisis brewing in Turkey?
- Paul Della Guardia
- 2024-07-13
Looking across the emerging markets complex, Turkey stands out as one of the larger, systemic EMs that is rapidly headed in the wrong direction. Inflation has of course been the main symptom of imbalances in the economy, gyrating between 40-80% since 2022. It currently stands at around 70%, despite the central bank hiking the policy […]
The $20 trillion investment gap
- Paul Della Guardia
- 2024-07-03
In last week’s post, I discussed savings and investment across large emerging markets and the G7 countries. As has been well-documented, imbalances in the G7 have profound consequences not only on domestic economies and the rise of populism. High consumption and the low savings that result across the G7, especially ex-Japan / Germany, means that […]
Is the G7 the new EM?
- Paul Della Guardia
- 2024-06-26
The past few weeks of political headlines have provided yet more confirmation of a long-term trend: the distinction between emerging and developed markets is less clear than it once was. Emerging and frontier markets are less politically stable, or so the old consensus goes. Yet Emmanuel Macron has flown in the face of all that […]
China’s lending to developing nations declines
- Paul Della Guardia
- 2024-06-18
Behold the dashboard for low- and middle-income country external sovereign debt! After peaking at $188 billion in 2021, for the first time in two decades the stock of low- and middle-income country sovereign debt that China holds declined in 2022. At just under $181 billion, this is still more than the US, France, the UK, […]
The Geopolitics of Sovereign Debt
- Paul Della Guardia
- 2024-06-11
EMDE sovereign borrowers walk a tightrope in the fragmented creditor landscape. One of the main themes permeating the 7th edition of the Sovereign Debt Research and Management Conference – aka “DebtCon” – held in Paris on 29-31 May was the increasingly challenging environment that sovereign borrowers face in accessing international capital and managing their balance […]
South Africa enters uncharted waters
- Paul Della Guardia
- 2024-06-03
With the African National Congress party having endured a crushing defeat in South Africa’s election on May 29th, the political horse-trading around forming a minority government is already well under way. The final tally shows the ANC receiving 40% of the votes and 159 of the parliament’s 400 seats, a sharp drop from the 230 […]
STAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE ON EMERGING MARKETS
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Members’ question time: Is this the end of dollar dominance?
De-dollarization - curated by SV 2024-09-16
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Pakistan sanguine about approval of $7bn IMF bailout package on Sept 25 - Business - Dunya News
Sovereign Debt - curated by SV 2024-09-16
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bne IntelliNews - BOOK REVIEW: Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Rule the World
Deglobalization - curated by SV 2024-09-16
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bne IntelliNews - Shocking findings show Kazakh company keeps Russian warplanes in air by sourcing French avionics, investigations NGO says
Deglobalization - curated by SV 2024-09-16
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bne IntelliNews - Russian IT sector hit by latest round of US sanctions, SMEs in the front line
Deglobalization - curated by SV 2024-09-16
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Serbia, Israel Presidents Announce Free Trade Agreement | Balkan Insight
Deglobalization - curated by SV 2024-09-16
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Ukraine concludes historic restructuring of US$20.5 billion of international bonds | White & Case LLP
Sovereign Debt - curated by SV 2024-09-13
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Sri Lanka Bondholders Hold New Round of Talks With Government - Bloomberg
Sovereign Debt - curated by SV 2024-09-13
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China EXIM Bank has completed Sri Lanka Bilateral Debt Restructuring?
Sovereign Debt - curated by SV 2024-09-13
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US dollar dominance is both a cause and a consequence of US power | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
De-dollarization - curated by SV 2024-09-12
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Global Repercussions of Russia-West Economic Warfare
Deglobalization - curated by SV 2024-09-12
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Hidden Gems: Unearthing the Potential of Overlooked Markets
EMDEs - curated by SV 2024-09-12
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Maldives hunts for bailout to avoid first Islamic sovereign debt default
Sovereign Debt - curated by SV 2024-09-11
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bne IntelliNews - Germany, France, UK plan sanctions on Iran's aviation sector
Deglobalization - curated by SV 2024-09-11
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bne IntelliNews - EU mulls sanctions against Slovakia over rule of law backsliding
Deglobalization - curated by SV 2024-09-10